We've Seen This Movie Before. A Former Pentagon Advisor Says AI Is the Dotcom Bubble, 17 Times Over.
Jim Rickards draws a direct line from the internet crash of 2000 to the AI boom of today, and warns the ending could rhyme
Washington, D.C., July 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Jim Rickards has watched the market crown a "new paradigm" before. In a new presentation, the former advisor to the CIA and the Pentagon argues that the AI boom is following the exact path of the dotcom bubble that burst in 2000, only on a vastly larger scale, and he lays out the pattern he says investors ignored last time.
A Bubble Bigger Than Any Before It
Rickards does not dismiss the technology. That, he argues, is part of what makes it so dangerous.
"You may think we are living in a 'new paradigm' and this technology is going to change the world," he says. "And you are exactly right. This technology is important. It will change the world. But that doesn't mean it's not a bubble."
By his team's estimate, the AI bubble is now roughly 17 times the size of the dotcom bubble, and in pure dollar terms bigger than every other bubble put together. His approach to it, he says, is not to pick a side emotionally. "It's about examining the facts and following them to their most logical conclusion," Rickards says.
The Dotcom Playbook, Running Again
The parallel Rickards keeps returning to is the internet boom of the late 1990s. Back then, he notes, the media proclaimed a new investing paradigm while companies poured staggering sums into infrastructure, tens of millions of miles of fiber optic cable, much of it financed with debt they could not repay and much of it never used.
The surface looked unstoppable. The foundation was not. "Underneath the hype, internet companies were going broke," he says, surviving only by selling stock or taking on more debt.
Rickards argues the same dynamic is unfolding now, with data centers standing in for fiber optic cable, enormous build-outs funded by debt, and marquee companies burning cash far faster than they earn it. "This is the exact situation playing out with AI today," he says.
How the Last One Ended
What makes the comparison sobering, Rickards argues, is how quickly the last one turned. In March 2000, a single magazine article warned that dozens of dotcom companies were about to run out of cash. Within a week, a few earnings misses proved it right, and the Nasdaq began what he calls its most spectacular crash in history, eventually falling nearly 80% and not recovering for 15 years.
The damage, he stresses, was not limited to the people who had chased internet stocks. "It didn't matter if they were invested in dotcom stocks or not," Rickards says, because the entire market went down together.
That, in his view, is the real warning for today. He frames it as his analysis rather than a certainty, but his argument is that a bubble this size does not deflate quietly, and that the time to understand the pattern is before the trigger arrives, not after.
About the Presentation
In his new presentation, Jim Rickards lays out why he believes the AI boom is a bubble on a historic scale, the dotcom-era pattern he sees repeating, and the steps he says investors can take to protect themselves and even profit if it bursts.
Jim Rickards' presentation is now available online for free. Click here to watch.
About Jim Rickards and Paradigm Press
Jim Rickards is a former advisor to the CIA and the Pentagon and the founder of the investment research publication Strategic Intelligence. He warned Washington of a looming financial crisis in 2006, two years before it struck, in a thesis the CIA circulated among its senior staff, and he was later called in to help negotiate the emergency bailout of a collapsing hedge fund that threatened the broader economy.
Paradigm Press is one of the largest independent financial research publishers in the United States, rated 4.8 stars on Google across more than 1,900 reviews. They are dedicated to helping everyday Americans understand and act on the forces shaping their wealth.
Derek Warren Public Relations Manager Paradigm Press Group Email: dwarren@paradigmpressgroup.com
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